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{"id":12243,"date":"2023-02-10T15:36:41","date_gmt":"2023-02-10T14:36:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/logement.web-pme.fr\/?p=12243"},"modified":"2023-03-08T17:02:51","modified_gmt":"2023-03-08T16:02:51","slug":"quel-avenir-pour-le-locatif-intermediaire-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/logement.web-pme.fr\/2023\/02\/quel-avenir-pour-le-locatif-intermediaire-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Quel avenir pour le locatif interm\u00e9diaire ? (2)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Deuxi\u00e8me partie : Un nouveau mod\u00e8le financier pour les logements sociaux ?<\/h2>\n

Les logements locatifs sociaux, soit aujourd\u2019hui les financements PLUS, PLAI et PLS, font l\u2019objet d\u2019un conventionnement avec l\u2019Etat qui fixe \u00e0 la fois les plafonds de ressources pour l\u2019attribution des logements, les loyers plafonds \u00e0 respecter, le contingent pr\u00e9fectoral de r\u00e9servation et les engagements relatifs \u00e0 l\u2019attribution d\u2019une partie des logements aux m\u00e9nages en difficult\u00e9. Depuis la loi SRU de d\u00e9cembre 2000, le conventionnement a pour les bailleurs sociaux une port\u00e9e d\u00e9finitive\u00a0: il ne prend fin qu\u2019en cas de vente a un particulier ou de destruction. Dans ces conditions, le logement social n\u2019offre que de faibles perspectives de rentabilit\u00e9. Il n\u2019en va pas de m\u00eame pour les op\u00e9rations financ\u00e9es en PLS par des investisseurs autres que les bailleurs sociaux qui ne sont tenus qu\u2019\u00e0 un conventionnement de dur\u00e9e limit\u00e9e, calqu\u00e9e sur celle du pr\u00eat contract\u00e9 aupr\u00e8s de la Caisse des d\u00e9p\u00f4ts (30 ans maximum, port\u00e9e \u00e0 50 ans pour le foncier) et ne portant que sur le plafonnement du loyer et des ressources des locataires. Dans ce cas, la sortie du conventionnement permet, en levant les contraintes de loyer, la r\u00e9alisation des plus-values latentes. Comme le montre le tableau 1, leur production, bien que largement minoritaire et en baisse, n\u2019est pas n\u00e9gligeable.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Or les besoins d\u2019investissements nouveaux sont consid\u00e9rables pour ce type de parc locatif social stricto sensu<\/em>, de m\u00eame que pour le locatif interm\u00e9diaire, dans les zones tendues, o\u00f9 la demande exc\u00e8de tr\u00e8s largement l\u2019offre. Une augmentation des financements publics semble inenvisageable, alors que la priorit\u00e9 du gouvernement est de r\u00e9duire par tous les moyens la d\u00e9pense budg\u00e9taire.
\nLes pouvoirs publics verraient donc d\u2019un bon \u0153il l\u2019affectation de fonds priv\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019investissement dans le logement interm\u00e9diaire et m\u00eame, pourquoi pas, dans le logement social. A cet \u00e9gard, le locatif interm\u00e9diaire institutionnel (LLI) offre un d\u00e9but de r\u00e9ponse, puisque, m\u00eame s\u2019il ouvre droit \u00e0 des aides publiques, il n\u2019impose qu\u2019une dur\u00e9e limit\u00e9e d\u2019engagement de location \u00e0 un loyer plafonn\u00e9. De plus, la contrainte du loyer plafond n\u2019est pas trop pesante si celui-ci est proche du loyer de march\u00e9. Est-il concevable d\u2019aller plus loin et d\u2019attirer les investisseurs institutionnels vers le financement du logement social stricto sensu, <\/em>dans un contexte de remont\u00e9e depuis d\u00e9but 2022 des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat\u00a0? Et si la condition de cette financiarisation g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e est l\u2019abandon du conventionnement sans limite de dur\u00e9e, quelles pourraient en \u00eatre les cons\u00e9quences\u00a0?<\/p>\n

Un gisement consid\u00e9rable<\/h3>\n

Avec 5,1 millions de logements, le parc locatif social fran\u00e7ais est le plus important d\u2019Europe en nombre et l\u2019un des plus cons\u00e9quents en pourcentage du parc total. Loin d\u2019\u00eatre homog\u00e8ne en termes de localisation, de morphologie et de qualit\u00e9 intrins\u00e8que, il n\u2019en repr\u00e9sente pas moins un gisement potentiel consid\u00e9rable de valeur. Ce gisement est aujourd\u2019hui inexploit\u00e9, et il le restera tant que perdureront les contraintes qui d\u00e9coulent du statut HLM, en particulier le conventionnement sans limite de dur\u00e9e. Dans l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se, aujourd\u2019hui improbable, o\u00f9 ce statut serait assoupli, le logement social pourrait attirer des capitaux priv\u00e9s. Le recours \u00e0 la vente s\u2019amplifierait, ce qui permettrait un d\u00e9sengagement partiel de l\u2019Etat. Dans une p\u00e9riode de forte contrainte budg\u00e9taire, o\u00f9 le financement de l\u2019Etat providence devient de plus en plus probl\u00e9matique comme en t\u00e9moigne la mise en \u0153uvre, \u00e0 partir de 2018, de la R\u00e9duction de loyer de solidarit\u00e9 (RLS), une telle perspective peut para\u00eetre s\u00e9duisante aux d\u00e9cideurs politiques. Le d\u00e9bat politique et technique porte sur le bien-fond\u00e9, la l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 et les conditions d\u2019une telle \u00ab\u00a0ouverture\u00a0\u00bb, sachant que la totalit\u00e9 du parc n\u2019est pas vendable, sauf \u00e0 accepter une d\u00e9cote qui en annulerait l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et que se pose la question de la reconstitution du parc vendu l\u00e0 o\u00f9 c\u2019est n\u00e9cessaire.<\/p>\n

Le LLI\u00a0: perspectives et limites<\/h3>\n

Selon l\u2019Inspection g\u00e9n\u00e9rale des finances (IGF) et le Conseil g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de l\u2019environnement et du d\u00e9veloppement durable (CGEDD)[1]<\/sup><\/a>, une mont\u00e9e en r\u00e9gime des investisseurs institutionnels dans le champ du Logement locatif interm\u00e9diaire (LLI) semble susceptible de r\u00e9pondre aux besoins du pays en locatif interm\u00e9diaire, estim\u00e9s entre 180 000 \u00e0 420 000 unit\u00e9s nouvelles sur une d\u00e9cennie, soit un investissement en fonds propres de l\u2019ordre de 20 \u00e0 45 Md\u20ac. Pour ces deux institutions, \u00ab\u00a0La mont\u00e9e en puissance des investisseurs institutionnels suppose n\u00e9anmoins une r\u00e9allocation cons\u00e9quente au sein de leurs portefeuilles d\u2019actifs dans un contexte marqu\u00e9 par leur retrait du r\u00e9sidentiel depuis les ann\u00e9es 1980. <\/em>[\u2026<\/em>] Il r\u00e9sulte cependant des travaux conduits par la mission qu\u2019un tel changement de strat\u00e9gie de la part des investisseurs institutionnels n\u2019est pas conditionn\u00e9 \u00e0 une intervention massive de l\u2019\u00c9tat. Au contraire, les acteurs rencontr\u00e9s ont fait part de leur volont\u00e9 d\u2019inscrire leur action dans un environnement juridique, \u00e9conomique et fiscal \u00e0 la fois stable et pr\u00e9visible\u00a0<\/em>\u00bb[2]<\/sup><\/a>. Certes, cela suppose aussi, toujours selon le m\u00eame rapport, de transformer l’exon\u00e9ration de la taxe fonci\u00e8re (vingt ans pour le logement interm\u00e9diaire), \u00e0 laquelle les collectivit\u00e9s locales \u00e9taient r\u00e9ticentes en l\u2019absence de compensation par L\u2019Etat, en un m\u00e9canisme de cr\u00e9dit d’imp\u00f4t \u00e0 la charge de l’\u00c9tat, ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 fait (cf. supra)\u00a0;\u00a0 de mettre fin \u00e0 l\u2019obligation d\u2019inclure au moins 25 % de logements sociaux au sein des programmes de logement interm\u00e9diaire pour b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier du taux r\u00e9duit de TVA fix\u00e9 \u00e0 10 %\u00a0; et d\u2019\u00e9tendre les avantages accord\u00e9s dans le cas de la construction de logements interm\u00e9diaires neufs \u00e0 la r\u00e9novation de logements.
\nLes rapporteurs estiment que ces mesures permettraient d\u2019accompagner sans choc d\u2019offre la suppression du Pinel et, pourquoi pas, d\u2019augmenter la production en captant l\u2019\u00e9pargne des particuliers, ce qui supposerait toutefois une petite r\u00e9volution chez les \u00e9pargnants. \u00ab\u00a0Dans la perspective d\u2019une r\u00e9duction progressive des dispositifs fiscaux en faveur de l\u2019investissement des particuliers, la mission estime que le d\u00e9veloppement de nouveaux fonds d\u00e9di\u00e9s au logement interm\u00e9diaire en construction neuve ou en r\u00e9novation de l\u2019ancien, sous la forme d\u2019Organismes de placement collectif en immobilier (OPCI), pourrait permettre de continuer de diriger l\u2019\u00e9pargne des m\u00e9nages vers le logement interm\u00e9diaire sans d\u00e9stabiliser les acteurs de la construction et sans dispositif d\u2019incitation fiscale suppl\u00e9mentaire<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb
[3]<\/a>. Enfin, dernier avantage, on peut faire confiance aux institutionnels pour investir dans les zones o\u00f9 le besoin est le plus marqu\u00e9.
\nUne telle orientation appara\u00eet pour le moins paradoxale alors qu\u2019un million de logements est sorti du parc des investisseurs institutionnels en 35 ans, et, si l\u2019on met \u00e0 part les filiales d\u2019Action logement et de la CDC (In\u2019li et CDC habitat), que les institutionnels \u00ab\u00a0classiques\u00a0\u00bb (banques, compagnies d\u2019assurance, caisses de retraite, OPCI…) s\u2019int\u00e9ressent fort peu au locatif interm\u00e9diaire (tableau 2bis).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Seule la baisse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et du rendement des autres actifs a pu les inciter \u00e0 y mettre un pied (ou plut\u00f4t quelques orteils). Mais m\u00eame en int\u00e9grant l\u2019effort r\u00e9alis\u00e9 par CDC Habitat et In\u2019li, la production moyenne n\u2019est gu\u00e8re que de 8\u00a0000 logements par an sur la p\u00e9riode 2014-2020, chiffre tr\u00e8s inf\u00e9rieur aux 50\u00a0000 esp\u00e9r\u00e9s (tableau 2). Dans les zones o\u00f9 il est n\u00e9cessaire, le LLI offre en effet une trop faible rentabilit\u00e9. C\u2019est le constat que faisait Benoist Apparu en 2020, et il est confirm\u00e9 par une \u00e9tude r\u00e9alis\u00e9e en r\u00e9ponse au rapport de l\u2019IGF et du CGDD sur les perspectives de d\u00e9veloppement d\u2019OPCI d\u00e9di\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019investissement dans le locatif interm\u00e9diaire, financ\u00e9s par la collecte de l\u2019\u00e9pargne des particuliers aujourd\u2019hui investisseurs directs dans l\u2019immobilier locatif. Sa conclusion est la suivante\u00a0 :<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Le projet ne prend pas en compte les deux \u00e9l\u00e9ments essentiels de tout investisseur dans l\u2019immobilier\u00a0:<\/em><\/p>\n